Guineas Weekend- Saturday Preview

By Samantha

 

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Defoe

Spring Lodge Stakes (Handicap)
OASIS CHARM won his first start as a four year old by a length over a mile and two furlongs. He won over this trip at Leicester at around this time of the year. He has been placed over course and distance and looks a progressive type who should handle the ground. Sharja Bridge is the most inexperienced in the field. He won his maiden at Nottingham in August. He was second last time out in September but has to step up in trip and class in this. Tricorn is three from seven. He isn’t tried over this trip yet and has failed to win on both attempts in this grade last season. Despite being second in Listed company, Dommersen seems the pick of the Gosden pair based on jockey bookings. He has been second over this trip but both of his wins have come on fibresand. Silvestre De Souza is doing his minimum weight to ride Another Eclipse so that boosts his chances. He has been gelded since last time and has scope to improve. Spark Plug and Third Time Lucky are course and distance winners.

 
Longholes Palace House Stakes (Group Three)
Since the turn of the century, three three year olds have won this. HAVANA GREY is the only three year old this year and he looks a smart sprinter to watch out for. He won the Group Three Molecomb at Goodwood beating Invincible Army who won on Wednesday. Further improvement can be made by this horse and he will handle the ground and has almost no weight. Alpha Delphini ran well last time out to finish second on horrible ground, when looking for a three timer at Musselburgh. He beat Ornate there in October. Encore D’Or has been running well lately on the All Weather, where most of his wins have come. His stablemate Jumira Bridge was second last time out and will like the ground. Super-filly Marsha won this last year and her jockey Luke Morris partners Judicial this year. He could be out of his depth in this Grade but the ground will suit. Mabs Cross is one of two fillies in this race but looks the better of the two. She is four from seven and was just denied by a neck on her reappearance at Bath. She’s a Listed winner and looks a danger to my selection due to her allowance.

 

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Havana Grey

 
Dunaden Jockey Club Stakes (Group Two)
DEFOE was fancied to win the St Leger last season but flopped. He had won a Group Three and a Listed race on his two starts before that. He burst into his four year old season with a brilliant win by two and a half lengths in a Group Three and that will set him up nicely for this. Count Octave also won first time out in 2018 but in a Class Five novice race. The Frankel colt was sixth in the St Leger and has finished close in this company in the past. He was second by only a neck in the Queen’s Vase at Ascot and that is very good form. Master The World and Red Verdon are both rated 107. The former won the Winter Derby and likes to spring a surprise win once in a while. Red Verdon won a Listed race in November but just missed out at a top three finish in the All-Weather Marathon Race at the Championships as he was half a length back in fourth despite staying on in the finish.
Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group One)

To read my preview for the 2000 Guineas, please click this link:- 2000 Guineas Preview 2018

Hot Streak Handicap (Class Two)
Chagatai and Crotchet are the two most lightly raced horses in the field. The former’s only defeat came when last in a Listed race behind Havana Grey. The margin between him and the winner was only three and a quarter lengths. He won first time out this season and Clive Cox does well with his sprinters. Crotchet is a filly and has also ran three times. She won her first race but has been tenth and third since. She could improve with age. Count Otto won his first two starts this year but couldn’t get close to winning behind Corinthia Knight in the Three Year Old All Weather Championship. William Haggas and James Doyle are a strong combination and they have Barton Mills in this. All his best runs have come over seven furlongs though. YAFTA is a really nicely bred sprinter being by Dark Angel out of multiple Listed winner and Newmarket specialist Swiss Dream. He was fourth on debut behind group race winner Headway at Chester. He finished last season with two wins and looks like he can continue his good run in this. Galloway Hills’ best form has come over five furlongs and Grandfather Tom is making his turf debut. Tribal Quest beat Galloway Hills last time out and Vj Day’s best runs have come on the all weather.
Havana Gold Newmarket Stakes (Listed)
Old Persian and Petrus are joint highest rated. Based on their form figures, OLD PERSIAN looks the pick of the two. He won over course and distance last month and was put up 5lbs for that. Petrus was fourth on debut behind Expert Eye and then won his maiden. Connections then put him in the Group Two Royal Lodge Stakes and he came fourth. Then he was fourth in Group Three company last time out. He must be held in high regard for connections to run him in those races so he could improve now he is three. Permian won this last year and his stable have Lynwood Gold. A winner on debut, he then had four runs over the space of just under two months and hasn’t been seen since. He was a two and a half length winner over one mile one furlong and he looks as if he will stay the extra furlong. Hawkbill won this the year before last and his connections team up again with Key Victory. He is a Teofilo colt like Permian was and has ran once. That was over seven furlongs and he won so this is a huge step up in trip for him to deal with. Stephensons Rocket is another Teofilo and he won his second start by over three lengths. He has been second over a mile but sprinting may be the way he should go in the future. Highbrow is making his turf debut and Graffiti Master has been third over today’s trip.
Qipco Racing Welffare Handicap
Charlie Appleby has two in this- Symbolization and Folk Tale. SYMBOLISATION looks the pick of the two, despite his big weight. No horse has won this with over 9st 5lbs on their back or from stall four in the past ten years. His form has been solid so far and he was a close second on his turf debut so that is encouraging. The trip is an unknown but the way he won over seven furlongs suggests that he wouldn’t mind a step up in trip. Folk Tale won his second start but has disappointed since. Hasn’t ran over a mile yet and is having a drop in grade. Sam Gold could be a threat to my selection. He is a maiden but seems to be improving as he runs. Roulette comes from last year’s winning stable. Her only decent run was in this class. The trip is an unknown for her though. Book Of Dreams is a very experienced three year old. He has won three times and last time out he was fourth behind Crownthorpe. The latter holds Book Of Dreams to that race and is a distance winner so has a shot. Curiosity doesn’t make much appeal.

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