By Samantha Martin (@sam_angelina22)
As a thirty-runner race, it is fair to say that finding the winner of the Royal Hunt Cup would probably be easier – and more successful – if you threw a dart at a board or picked a name out of a hat. However, it is perhaps not all doom and gloom for punters as there has not been a winner above 33/1 since 1990.
Raced over the straight mile at Royal Ascot, this heritage handicap has been held since 1843, making it the 180th Anniversary of the contest. The prize money has not yet recovered to pre-Covid levels with just over £90,000 to the winner, rather than the £108,000 of 2019, but it is, regardless, a considerable step up from 2020 and 2021. Connections will surely not mind with the prestige of a Royal Ascot winner far outweighing any below-par prize money.
However, the impact of the draw, which appears to suggest multiple groups might emerge, could leave a few parties disgruntled and unsatisfied after the Royal Hunt Cup, but, as the saying goes, “it’s luck of the draw”.
Before Royal Ascot, only five races had been held over the straight course at Ascot this season, so there is very little to go off, particularly as only two of those races had a double figure field. The first of those was a fifteen runner affair won by Chasing Aphrodite, who was drawn 12, and the two following horses were drawn in 3 and 8. The Victoria Cup, over one furlong less, does not even offer much with the first two horses coming out of 2 and 23.
Oisin Murphy, who will partner Ghaly, said in an interview on Tuesday morning that, before the rain came, the place to be was the stands’ side. However, in the twenty-two runner Coventry Stakes, the horses against the far rail appeared to have an advantage and that was especially pronounced in the King’s Stand Stakes, with Dramatised, Vadream and Cannonball having absolutely no chance.
As a result, it appears even more critical to consider where the pace will be in this season’s Royal Hunt Cup. Point Lynas and Awaal, drawn side-by-side in 28 and 29 respectively, are probably the most likely to take up this role. These two could potentially take each other on for the lead, which would undermine their own chances, but it would lead to the formation of a group on the stands rail.
On the other side, there is a whole collection of horses who could run prominently, drawn in the low numbers. Chasing Aphrodite (drawn 3) won over course and distance last time, making the running. He is drawn beside Isla Kai, who has plenty of experience leading in races like this. Wanees runs freely in his races, drawn next door in five, and gets blinkers. Jimi Hendrix, drawn in 7, ran very freely last time. A few boxes down, Dunum has had a successful year racing prominently in big-field Irish races. As a result, between draws 3 and 11, there is an immense amount of pace, that could lead to five horses attempting to take each other on, which could be a recipe for disaster as they are all quite keen going horses. This might then benefit Light And Dark, drawn in 9 and has a tendency to jump slowly from the stalls, Astro King, drawn in 12 and was held up by new connections last time, and Greatgadian, drawn in 13 and has been held up the last few times.
However, the jockeys of Revich, Orbaan, Bless Him, Aerion Power, Sonny Liston and Atrium need to be begging Lewis Edmunds to bounce out on Bear Force One to give them all a lead and form their own group, as the horse did when winning last time. These horses all tend to be held up or at the back of mid-division and benefit from a pace to aim at. The alternative would be to switch over to either follow the two aforementioned groups, but that takes valuable petrol.
Reach For The Moon, drawn close to the stands rail in 32, will no doubt be popular in the market as he is set to be ridden by Frankie Dettori and is owned by the King and Queen. A group three winner as a two-year-old, he picked up an injury midway through the following season, which ruled him out of some nice targets. He was second in quite a weak Hampton Court Stakes last season and, on his only start this season, he ran freely with blinkers on and was well-beaten in a Newmarket group three. He is a capable horse and makes his handicap debut.
Intellogent, a quirky customer, was fourth in the Newmarket race after being walked to the start and ducking left when the gates opened. He really should know better, aged eight, and was only beaten half a length in this race last year with Astro King, Isla Kai, Bless Him and Greatgadian all following in behind that day.
As explained previously, Isla Kai, who finished sixth in this last year and won at Ripon two starts ago, and Bless Him, who won the Bunbury Cup last season, are especially vulnerable to the draw, but Greatgadian’s connections, King Power, will be hoping for a more successful week at Royal Ascot than the season their football club, Leicester City, had. They are also represented by Aerion Power, who is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, winner of the race in 2000 with Carribean Monarch, but this ungelded son of Kingman has not won since May 2021. They reach for blinkers for Greatgadian, who has been out of the Winners’ Enclosure since May 2022 and gets the able assistance of Aidan Keeley’s 5lbs claim. Last time out, he ran in the Nottingham handicap that was won by Dark Shift on his way to Royal Hunt Cup glory in 2022.
At Nottingham, Point Lynas finished a place ahead, despite being keen, and led the field. He could assume a similar role in this race and could be well-in as his handicap rating is due to go up 3lbs for this next start. He has ground to make up with Outbreak and Atrium, but he finished ahead of Astro King, who was making his first start for Dan and Claire Kubler, at York in May. The Kublers paid 36,000gns for the ex-Sir Michael Stoute recruit in October. He had a terrible passage through the York race, but, despite carrying more weight, he finished just over a length behind Point Lynas, who was second, and ahead of Blue For You and Isla Kai.
Funnily enough, that race, the Hambleton Handicap at York, was won by Croupier, who finished last in the Lincoln. This perhaps demonstrates how the form of this early season highlight may well be discarded as Ascot’s ground conditions will be a far cry from the heavy ground experienced at Doncaster. This has meant that the winner, Migration, is a non runner on account of the ground, which is a blow for Benoit De La Sayette. Of the runners who reappear from the Lincoln, Revich’s connections will likely be hoping for more rain overnight. He is a talented horse and, after the Lincoln ninth place, he was third to Jimi Hendrix, who was thirteenth in the Lincoln, and won at Chester. Last time, he was very keen and ran quite well at Epsom on Oaks Day, but it is fair to be sceptical whether he stays the mile.
Orbaan finished fourth, about two lengths closer, at Epsom, but he had previously finished well-beaten in the Victoria Cup, which the well-punted Perotto finished seventh in. Like Orbaan, Perotto is tried and tested in these big field handicaps, won the 2021 Britannia and has recently moved to Roger Varian, making him, to some, an appealing prospect. Orbaan, on the other hand, is getting on in years but won the Golden Mile at Goodwood last year. He beat stablemate Blue For You, as well as Revich, Ouzo, Positive and Jimi Hendrix that day.
The David O’Meara horses make for formidable opponents in this sort of race and Blue For You won next time out in a heritage handicap at York. The reappearance effort last time will have blown away any cobwebs. Fitness should not be a problem for Ouzo, who spent the winter in Meydan, like 2021 winner Real World, but he does have ground to make up with Orbaan and Blue For You.
Positive won in February at Kempton on the All Weather, on which he is a bit of a specialist, which limits his chances here, and managed to convincingly beat Bear Force One and Greatgadian. Bear Force One could be crucial to the pace of the race and has been running well since the season started, winning at Kempton and in a valuable handicap at Newbury, where he had Outbreak, Intellogent, Bless Him, Atrium, Sonny Liston and Wanees all in behind. Between those two winning starts, Bear Force One was absolutely put into his place by Chasing Aphrodite, who was having his first run after a wind op. This horse is still a colt and this success, which was over course and distance, was a massive step in the right direction.
Chasing Aphrodite is one of thirteen four-year-olds in the race; Awaal, Atrium, Sonny Liston and Wanees are also that age. Awaal, Atrium and Wanees probably had quite tough races when following in Migration in the Lincoln. Towards the top of the market, Awaal will surely be a popular choice under William Buick. Connections will have been doing a rain dance as he loves to get his toe in, which was shown with his second place behind Migration. This was a massive performance, but he finished last of nine in a French listed race afterwards.
Atrium has since followed in Jimi Hendrix and Bear Force One, so he has a bit to find, but connections reach for cheekpieces. Wanees’ and Sonny Liston’s connections both go for blinkers after their charges ran down the field at Newbury behind Bear Force One, but the latter has Ryan Moore in the saddle. Both of Chelsea Thoroughbreds’ runners Sonny Liston and Jimi Hendrix, who are trained by Ralph Beckett, wear blinkers. When they were applied, Jimi Hendrix, who wears the first colours with Ryan Moore supporting the red cap on his stablemate, bolted up at Newbury, but he could not back that up at Newmarket over a bit further.
Dual Identity and, even more so, Dawn Of Liberation were beaten far in that Newmarket race. Dual Identity manages to squeeze in as number 31 with Migration a non runner. He has the able company of Neil Callan, who won the Queen Anne on Day One. He has not raced over a mile since June 2022 and will be doing his best work late-on. Dawn Of Liberation did not get a good start at Chester in a valauble race and it was all over because he was forced wide from stall nine, but he was well-supported that day and got dropped 1lbs for the effort. He reached a rating of 107 a few years ago and it might be worth watching the market with him. Richard Hannon looks to follow in the footsteps of his father, who won the race in 2008.
Saeed bin Suroor has a great record in the contest, winning it in 2010 with Invisible Man and Real World in 2021. He has had seven winners from just thirty runners this season, including Mawj in the 1000 Guineas. In the Royal Hunt Cup, his two representatives, Ghaly and Light And Dark, are both seven years old, which means statistics are against them, but Ghaly has only had ten races after plenty of time off of the track. He beat Blue For You in a four runner event at York last July and followed that up in October with a pleasing success on the Rowley Mile. Ghaly had Revich behind that day, as well as Victoria Cup winner Rebel Territory, meaning he essentially has the beating of favourite Perotto and Orbaan. His stablemate, Light And Dark, rejected wearing a hood last time and he looked a little bit fretty behind the stalls, before jumping slowly from them. They have removed the hood and he makes a fairly quick reappearance.
Tempus, for Archie Watson and Holly Doyle, who teamed up to win the King’s Stand, is another of the seven-year-olds in the line-up. Tempus loves Ascot: he has form figures of 13159 over the straight mile. His two successes came in 0-105 class two handicaps and he was third in this race last season, drawn alongside the winner. The two latter defeats came in the group one Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, where, despite being last, he was only beaten ten lengths, and, once again last, he was two and three quarter lengths behind Chindit last time out. That form is ahead of what most horses in this line up have achieved.
However, Imperial Fighter is taking a drop in grade to make his handicap debut. He finished second in two group threes and fifth in Luxembourg’s Vertem Futurity Trophy as a two-year-old and he was third in the Irish 2000 Guineas at three. They gelded him last August, but his subsequent efforts have been underwhelming. Although, they were in listed and group company, so, perhaps, he is simply no longer up to that level. This, on the other hand, is a completely new test.
The same can be said for Koy Koy, who represents last year’s winning jockey, James McDonald. He started his career as Imperial Fighter’s stablemate in Andrew Balding’s, but he later moved to George Boughey after finishing tenth in the Britannia. He won next time out but finished behind Atrium and Awaal last season. When behind Awaal and during the previous outing, he was slow from the stalls, but he has since been gelded to hopefully focus his mind on the job. He is the only runner making their 2023 debut, which places him at something of a disadvantage, but the Boughey horses are flying.
Outbreak made a good start to the year on the All Weather with four solid efforts, including a win. His three subsequent turf starts have been mixed, beginning with being convincingly beaten at Newmarket; winning at the same track in May and finishing a very good fifth at Newbury, behind Bear Force One and ahead of Intellogent, Bless Him, Atrium, Sonny Liston and Wanees.
Last, but certainly not least, to mention is Dunum, the only Irish raider. Trained by Natalia Lupini in County Down, he is a homebred and has undergone an incredible transformation under the young trainer’s care. He joined her off a mark of 58 having had nine races, including finishing second on two occasions behind Aintree Grand National festival winner Fennor Cross. Debuting for Lupini in May 2022, he went on to win four races and then finish second. This season, he won incredibly well, ears pricked, at Limerick before being terribly unlucky at the Curragh. Unlike some of the younger British horses, Dunum has plenty of experience in big field races and, now racing off 97, has a real chance of providing something of a fairytale success for his connections.
Selections
To wrap this up, my main fancy for the race is CHASING APHRODITE. Five races were held over the Ascot straight mile this season before Royal Ascot and Harry Eustace has won two of them. Hayley Turner won on board Docklands, who has a fantastic chance in the Britannia, for Eustace, so Chasing Aphrodite winning would not be out of character. They teamed up last year to win the Palace of Holyrood House Stakes with Latin Lover at the Royal meeting and Eustace’s father, James, won the Royal Hunt Cup in 1998 with Refuse To Lose. Overall, Harry Eustace has had ten runners at Ascot with three winners, two seconds and a fourth. Chasing Aphrodite has massively benefitted from having a wind-op and this contest is a much tougher ask compared to last time out, but he is a very progressive young horse and evidence from Day One implies that he is drawn on the right side.
I was keen on Koy Koy, but, the more I consider his form, the more it becomes clear that his chances depend on whether the gelding operation has worked and whether he is fit enough.
I am convinced Imperial Fighter is a very talented horse. He needs to rekindle his form from his younger years, but he has been running in much harder races. Andrew Balding is a master trainer and, with Callum Hutchinson taking off 3lbs, he looks to be value in the race.
These three horses are all four year olds and all bar one of the last eight renewals have been won by a horse of that age. However, I have a strange feeling Light And Dark could run into the placings, even though very little of his form suggests this. He also has made a habit of being slow from the stalls, but his draw position in nine, alongside horses who like to be prominent, might benefit David Probert as it seems like there is the potential for the runners to fight each other and the pace could, possibly, collapse to Light And Dark’s benefit at a great each-way price.
NOTE – The third reserve, Quantico, who did not get in, runs at Chelmsford on Thursday in the 3:50 and has a sensational chance with the Archie Watson yard in such excellent form.
REIN IT IN 